An Age of Sigmar dice calculator turns a weapon profile and a target into exact odds for the 4th edition attack sequence: hit roll, wound roll, save roll and damage. Ten attacks hitting on 3+, wounding on 3+, with Rend 1 into a 4+ save and Damage 1 average 2.96 damage, with a strong chance of dealing three or more.
Expected damage
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How to Use the Age of Sigmar Dice Calculator
- Enter the weapon profile: number of attacks, the Hit and Wound values, Rend and Damage, plus any critical hit ability.
- Enter the target: its Save and any Ward. Leave the Save blank for a target with no save.
- Read the funnel. The bars show the full damage distribution, and the results show the expected damage and the chance to deal each amount.
| Result | What it means |
|---|---|
| Expected damage | The long-run average damage dealt to the target, after saves and any ward. |
| Average unsaved wounds | The mean number of attacks that get past the save to inflict damage, before the Damage characteristic is applied. |
| Chance to deal any damage | How often the attack deals at least one point of damage. |
| Chance to meet or beat the average | How often the damage lands at or above the rounded expected value. |
| Most likely damage | The single damage total that comes up most often, with its probability. |
What Is an Age of Sigmar Dice Calculator?
An Age of Sigmar dice calculator is a probability tool for the Warhammer Age of Sigmar attack sequence. It answers one question before you commit a unit: how much damage will this weapon do to that target, on average and across the whole range of outcomes?
Players often call this "mathhammer". It helps with target priority, list building and comparing two weapon profiles. It does not roll dice for you. Instead it averages every possible roll exactly, so the odds do not drift from one click to the next. For dice odds in general, see the dice probability calculator.
How Does the Age of Sigmar Attack Sequence Work?
The 4th edition Core Rules resolve each attack in four steps: hit roll, wound roll, save roll and determine damage. Each step rolls a d6, and a roll succeeds when it equals or beats the value you need.
E(damage per attack) = P(hit) x P(wound) x P(save fails) x Damage- Hit roll: a d6 that equals or beats the Hit value scores a hit. An unmodified 1 always fails, and an unmodified 6 is a critical hit that can trigger a Crit ability.
- Wound roll: a d6 that equals or beats the Wound value wounds. An unmodified 1 always fails. Hit and wound modifiers are capped at plus or minus 1.
- Save roll: the defender rolls a d6 and subtracts Rend. If the result equals or beats the Save value the attack is saved. So a 4+ save against Rend 1 passes only on an unmodified 5 or 6.
- Determine damage: an unsaved attack inflicts damage equal to the weapon Damage characteristic. A Ward, if any, is then rolled for each damage point and is not affected by Rend.
The tool combines every attack exactly. Random damage is spread over all its outcomes, never averaged first, so the distribution and the chance to do a given amount are precise.
Age of Sigmar Dice Example: 10 Attacks into a 4+ Save
Ten attacks hit on 3+, wound on 3+, have Rend 1 and Damage 1, into a target with a 4+ save and no ward.
- Hits: 3+ succeeds on 4 of 6 faces, so 10 x 4/6 = 6.67 hits.
- Wounds: 3+ succeeds on 4 of 6 faces, so 6.67 x 4/6 = 4.44 wounds.
- Saves: a 4+ save with Rend 1 passes only on a 5 or 6, so it fails on 4 of 6 rolls. That leaves 4.44 x 4/6 = 2.96 unsaved wounds.
- Damage: with Damage 1, each unsaved wound deals one point, so the expected damage is 2.96. In full: 10 x 4/6 x 4/6 x 4/6 x 1 = 640/216 = 2.96.
Averages hide the spread. The distribution bars show that dealing exactly three damage is common, while four or more is still a realistic result.
Factors That Change Your Damage Output
The Wound Value
The wound roll is often the biggest lever. Wounding on 3+ instead of 4+ raises every attack from a half chance to two thirds, a third more damage before saves even begin.
Rend Against the Save
Rend is subtracted from the save roll, so each point of Rend worsens the save by one. Rend 1 turns a 4+ save into a 5+, and Rend 2 turns it into a 6+. A ward save ignores Rend, so Rend does less against a target with a strong ward.
Critical Hit Abilities
Crit (2 Hits), Crit (Auto-wound) and Crit (Mortal) all trigger on an unmodified 6, which is one roll in six. Each changes what that critical hit becomes.
Damage and Random Damage
A higher Damage characteristic multiplies every unsaved wound. Random damage such as D3 or D6 widens the spread, so the most likely result and the average can differ.
Modifiers
Modifiers to hit and wound rolls are capped at plus or minus 1, no matter how many apply. Rend is not a roll modifier and is not capped.
Crit (2 Hits) vs Crit (Auto-wound) vs Crit (Mortal)
| Ability | Triggers on | Effect | Best against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crit (2 Hits) | Unmodified hit roll of 6 | The attack scores 2 hits instead of 1; make a wound roll for each | Low Save, low Wound value targets |
| Crit (Auto-wound) | Unmodified hit roll of 6 | The attack wounds automatically; you still make a save roll | Hard-to-wound targets |
| Crit (Mortal) | Unmodified hit roll of 6 | Inflicts mortal damage equal to Damage; the sequence ends, so no wound or save roll | Strong saves and high-save models |
Crit (Mortal) is strongest when the target has a good save, because mortal damage skips the save entirely. A ward save still applies to that mortal damage. Crit (2 Hits) scales best when you already wound and get past the save easily, since it simply doubles that critical attack.
When to Use the Age of Sigmar Dice Calculator
Choosing a Target in the Combat Phase
Compare the same weapon into two enemy units and strike where the expected damage is highest.
Building an Army List
Test two weapon or warscroll options into the targets you expect to face, and weigh the damage gain against the points cost.
Checking a Close Game
Before a decisive fight, read the chance to deal enough damage to finish a unit. A result that only reaches the goal a third of the time calls for a backup plan.
Common Age of Sigmar Dice Math Mistakes
1. Getting Rend Backwards
Rend is subtracted from the save roll, which makes the save worse. A 4+ save against Rend 1 passes only on a 5 or 6, not on a 3.
2. Stacking Modifiers Past One
Two plus-1 bonuses to hit still give only plus 1. Adding them in full makes a unit look stronger than the rules allow.
3. Applying Rend to a Ward
A ward save is never reduced by Rend. A 6+ ward always saves on a 6, whatever the Rend.
4. Treating Mortal Damage Like Normal Damage
Crit (Mortal) skips the wound and save rolls and ends the sequence. Only a ward can stop it.
5. Forgetting That a 1 Always Fails
Even with a plus-1 bonus and a 2+ to hit, an unmodified 1 still misses. Your best hit chance without re-rolls is 5 in 6.
6. Trusting One Roll
A single combat can swing far from the average. Plan around the distribution, not a single lucky or unlucky result. The same idea drives dice probability in general.
Accuracy and Limitations
The odds are exact for the rules modelled here, because the tool sums every outcome instead of simulating.
What it calculates accurately
- Hit, wound and save chances, with hit and wound modifiers capped at -1 or +1.
- Rend against the save, an optional ward per damage point, and Crit (2 Hits), Crit (Auto-wound) and Crit (Mortal).
- Flat and random damage, and the full damage distribution with the chance to deal at least a given amount.
What it does not account for
- Re-rolls, exploding hits beyond the Crit abilities shown, and spells or command abilities.
- Multi-wound model counts, model removal and damage lost to overkill across a unit.
- Faction, battle trait and warscroll rules beyond the inputs provided.
- Rules changes published after the data was verified on 2026-10-05.
How We Calculate Age of Sigmar Attack Odds
Frequently Asked Questions About Age of Sigmar Dice Odds
How does Rend work in Age of Sigmar 4th edition?
Rend is subtracted from the save roll. A 4+ save against Rend 1 passes only on an unmodified 5 or 6, because the roll minus Rend must still equal or beat the Save value.
Does Rend affect a ward save?
No. A ward is a separate, unmodifiable save rolled for each damage point, and Rend never reduces it. A 6+ ward always saves on a 6.
What does an unmodified 6 do on the hit roll?
It is a critical hit. On its own it just hits, but it triggers the weapon Crit ability, such as Crit (2 Hits), Crit (Auto-wound) or Crit (Mortal).
How much does a 3+ to hit succeed?
A 3+ hits on 4 of 6 faces, or 66.7 percent. A 4+ hits on 3 of 6, which is 50 percent, and a 2+ hits on 5 of 6, which is 83.3 percent.
What is the difference between the Crit abilities?
Crit (2 Hits) turns the critical hit into two hits, Crit (Auto-wound) skips its wound roll, and Crit (Mortal) deals mortal damage and ends the attack.
Does Crit (Mortal) still allow a save?
No normal save. Mortal damage bypasses the wound and save rolls, so only a ward save can reduce it.
How is D3 damage rolled?
Roll one d6 and halve it, rounding up. A 1 or 2 gives 1, a 3 or 4 gives 2, and a 5 or 6 gives 3, so each result is equally likely.
Why is the most likely damage different from the average?
Random damage and the chance of misses create a spread. The average is the long-run mean, while the most likely value is the single result that comes up most often.
Are hit and wound modifiers capped?
Yes. Modifiers to hit and wound rolls are capped at plus or minus 1, no matter how many apply. Rend is applied to the save and is not capped.
Which edition does this calculator use?
It follows the Warhammer Age of Sigmar 4th edition Core Rules for the attack sequence, Rend, ward saves and the critical hit abilities.
Is this calculator official?
No. It is a free fan-made tool. Warhammer, Age of Sigmar and all related marks are trademarks of Games Workshop Limited. This fan-made calculator is not affiliated with or endorsed by Games Workshop.
Sources
- Warhammer Age of Sigmar 4th edition Core Rules (Making Attacks) (Wahapedia reproduction of the official Games Workshop Core Rules, accessed 2026-10-05). The hit, wound, save and damage steps, Rend, ward saves and the critical hit abilities.
- Warhammer Age of Sigmar: downloads and free rules (Warhammer Community, Games Workshop). Official free Core Rules and rules updates.
- OpenStax, Introductory Statistics, 3.2 Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events (OpenStax). Why independent step chances multiply.
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Explore all gaming calculatorsFree fan-made planning tool for general information only. Results are averages and chances, not guarantees, and they model only the rules listed on this page. Games Workshop updates the rules through Battlescrolls and other documents, so check the current rules before a tournament. Warhammer, Age of Sigmar and all related marks are trademarks of Games Workshop Limited. This fan-made calculator is not affiliated with or endorsed by Games Workshop. Spotted an error? Let us know.
Author
Shakeel Muzaffar is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of MultiCalculators.com, bringing over 15 years of experience in digital publishing, product strategy, and online tool development. He leads the platform's editorial vision, ensuring every calculator meets strict standards for accuracy, usability, and real-world value. Shakeel personally oversees content quality, formula verification workflows, and the platform's commitment to publishing tools that are genuinely useful for students, professionals, and everyday users worldwide.




